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Communicating Smart Meter Value

Sep 9 2010 - 2010-01-01 12:00:00 - Your City

If you are involved in Management or Customer Service and are responsible for communicating the value of smart meters to your utility customers, you don’t want to miss this online discussion - Communicating Smart Meter Value.  more...

Social Media: The new frontier in recruiting, communications and marketing

Sep 13 2010 - 2010-01-01 12:00:00 - Your City

Join social media mavens Matthew Burks and Amanda Shewmake as they provide an insider's perspective on how HR, communications and marketing professionals in energy companies can harness the power of social media to be more effective and productive. more...

Eliminating Obstacles and Delivering the Benefits of the Smart Grid - IBM's Optimized Energy Value Chain (OEVC)

Sep 14 2010 - 2010-01-01 12:00:00 - Your City

The convergence of power and information technologies in the smart grid has created opportunities for finer grained and broader controls of energy flows. These opportunities can improve electric service in multiple dimensions: lower cost, greater reliability, greater customer satisfaction, and more...

Achieving Operational Excellence - What to Consider Before Implementing or Upgrading Your Distribution Management Solutions

Sep 16 2010 - 2010-01-01 12:00:00 - Your City

Significant cost over runs. Changing business requirements. A well thought out plan is essential. Attend this free webcast discussion to hear inside hear three experts in utility operations discuss what utilities need to evaluate when they are considering upgrading or more...

Outsmarting the Smart Grid: IT, Security and Communication Infrastructure  Challenges & Opportunities for Utilities

Sep 21 2010 - 2010-01-01 12:00:00 - Your City

The smart grid is shifting the playing field for utilities. And when the game changes, it pays to be prepared. A nimble solutions partner can help you design the solutions that keep operations on track, even as new challenges come more...

1st CSP Today Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Summit India

Sep 7 2010 - Sep 8 2010 - New Delhi India

Deliver a profitable, productive and commercially successful large scale CSP business in India. Building on the success of past events in USA, Europe & MENA, CSP Today brings to New Delhi the most relevant international experience for the concentrated solar more...

Offshore Wind Energy in North America's Great Lakes Conference

Sep 9 2010 - Sep 10 2010 - Toronto

Two day conference that tackles the most important challenges. A blend of European knowledge from the companies who have been installing offshore wind turbines for the last decade alongside local state governing bodies and leading project developers. Permitting, securing long more...

Autovation 2010

Sep 12 2010 - Sep 15 2010 - Austin, TX - USA

Autovation 2010 is a not-to-miss educational forum that will attract utility executives from around the world looking for new ways to optimize their operations through automation technologies. more...

Global Sustainable Bioenergy North American Convention

Sep 14 2010 - Sep 16 2010 - Minneapolis, MN - USA

The North American convention provides a remarkable opportunity to play a part in guiding renewable energy policy for the 21st century. Attendees will create a resolution that, along with similar resolutions already drafted on four other continents, will help set more...

GridWise Global Forum

Sep 21 2010 - Sep 23 2010 - Washington, DC - USA

Hosted by the GridWise(R) Alliance and the U.S. Department of Energy, the GridWise Global Forum will convene thought leaders from the highest levels of government, business, NGOS, and academia from around the world to discuss the ultimate enabling potential of more...

1. Intro to Nat Gas Trading & Hedging 2. Option Applications in Energy

Sep 20 2010 - Sep 23 2010 - Houston, TX - USA

Introduction to Natural Gas Trading & Hedging - This program provides a comprehensive understanding of the structures that underlie Natural Gas trading. Beyond Essentials: Option Applications in Energy - This course provides a solid practical and conceptual (non-quantitative) understanding of more...

Electric Business Understanding Seminar

Sep 20 2010 - Sep 21 2010 - Houston, TX - USA

Electric Business Understanding provides a comprehensive overview of the electric industry. Position yourself for career advancement by gaining a solid understanding of how the electric business works including key physical, market, and regulatory aspects and how market participants navigate this more...

Electric Market Dynamics Seminar

Sep 22 2010 - Sep 23 2010 - Houston, TX - USA

Electric Market Dynamics offers participants an in-depth understanding of North American electric markets and how they function. Enhance your career by furthering your knowledge of market structures, pricing mechanisms, services offered in markets, and how various participants use the markets more...

Gas and Electric Business Understanding Seminar

Oct 5 2010 - Oct 6 2010 - Los Angeles, CA - USA

Gas and Electric Business Understanding provides a comprehensive overview of the natural gas and electric industries. Position yourself for career success by gaining a solid understanding of how each business works, including key physical, market and regulatory aspects, as well more...

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Nuclear Waste Perspectives
1.28.04   John K. Sutherland, Chief Scientist, Edutech Enterprises

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    Background, Overview and Perspectives
    "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." -- Charles Darwin.

    Previous articles by me on this site examined the political baggage that has held the U.S. nuclear program back and effectively caused the Yucca mountain fiasco; showed that uranium and thorium energy resources are assured for millions of years and could meet most, if not all of our existing and projected energy needs with much less environmental effect than almost any other source of energy; and presented comparative data that showed that nuclear power was far cleaner, much safer, and generally was cost competitive with any other reasonable source of energy. This and following articles will attempt to put the issue of nuclear waste and it's assumed effects in a broader social perspective than is usually seen. Marie Curie, one of the early pioneers of radioactive research and the winner of two Nobel prizes, recognized the social value of dispelling ignorance, when she stated: 'Nothing is to be feared. It is to be understood'. Marie Curie herself was so radioactive from her 'bucket chemistry', and inhaling radon and ingesting radium and other nuclides, that when she entered any physics laboratory, it was noted that any charged electroscopes immediately lost their charge. She died, possibly of leukemia, at age 66, having outlived most of her generation. Nuclear wastes must surely be one of the most difficult and thorny topics to address in the complete absence of perspective, which is the way they are usually addressed. The general belief seems to be that only nuclear wastes are dangerous or socially damaging not only now, but also into the far distant future, and that wastes from other sources of energy are not. This general lack of perspective, and inability to compare social risks today and over time, is not only unnerving, but also expensive and hazardous to society's continued health.

    The issues of nuclear power, radiation, and nuclear wastes are rife with ignorance, political manipulation, environmental obfuscation, and fear. As a result, they are either a political minefield, or a goldmine of emotions, depending upon which side of these politicized issues you stand.

    Rank the Risks
    Surprisingly, this perception of unconscionable danger from nuclear power and its wastes (all to do with radiation) survives, even as we are forced to accept - grudgingly - that using fossil fuels is obviously much more dangerous and limiting to both humanity and the environment; as the objective statistics (Paul Scherrer Institute) tell us. However, this is not a diatribe against fossil fuels. We need all the energy we can get from whatever sources, though some are much better than others. However, choices come from having options. It is not an option to be without adequate, reliable and affordable energy. 'No energy is more dangerous than no energy.' Homi Bhabha.

    Some of us seem prepared to believe that our continued high dependence upon fossil fuels and the resulting global 'pollution' might be changing our entire environment and climate, and jeopardizing our very existence as a species. No small effect indeed, if true. Despite this, we typically avoid making rational comparison of the merits or difficulties of all of our reasonable energy choices. Even many intelligent and honest people seem prepared to judge the issue upon fearful allegations, hearsay, and junk science, without acquainting themselves of the simple facts, or of seeking a measure of balance and perspective. Such perspective would allow a more intelligent consideration and understanding of nuclear and radioactive wastes, and seeing where they fit in the overall ranking of defined social risks: which is somewhere near the very bottom, as Table 1 below, shows. Perception and fear seem to place them near the top, but obviously without any rational (statistically supported) justification for doing so.

    In any society that wishes to progress and achieve the longest average life expectancy (the true measure of societal health), logic dictates that they get their risk assessment right, and that wealth be devoted primarily to addressing the risks towards the top of any valid risk ranking, while spending fewer resources further down the ranking. The most pessimistically calculated risk figures to society or even to individuals, (arrived at rationally by generally professional people, rather than those who just guess), from using nuclear power to produce electricity, and from its radioactive wastes, are shown in Table 1, along with some of the much more significant social risks. The nuclear risk data (exaggerated by calculation, as there are no obviously attributable bodies) appear because hundreds of more socially significant risks have been omitted in order to fit these onto the table. The 'all electricity - nuclear (NRC)' number, was calculated by the Nuclear Regulatory commission, and assuming that ALL electricity in the U.S. was supplied by nuclear power, rather than the almost 20% that it supplies at this time. Even the most pessimistic number, calculated by the Union of Concerned Scientists, at 1.5 days LLE, confirms its overall low effect.

    One risk figure which does not appear on Cohen's original table, as it does not yet apply to the U.S. but would, if others had their way with our energy supply, is the risk figure that would exist if our society did not have adequate, assured, or affordable energy. This would plunge society into joblessness, poverty, ill health, violence, stress, etc. An average life expectancy typical of the third world would result in a loss of life expectancy likely to be in excess of maybe 15,000 days, along with the absence of a viable future for our society.

    If the EPA is to be believed about radon in our homes, then the effect on the public of radon in their homes is almost 1,000 times more dangerous than nuclear power to produce electricity (NRC) and is about 3.5 million times more dangerous than nuclear waste disposal (derived from the EPA). Please read that sentence again, and think what it means in terms of perspective. Based upon this, and carefully avoiding cost/benefit considerations (they generally do NOT do them), the EPA might thus consider that about $34E12 ($34 trillion of a $10 trillion-a-year economy!) should be directed at radon mitigation, as they are prepared to see $34 billion spent to reduce the 1,000 times less risk from radiation emissions from nuclear power facilities (Table 2). I wonder what they would like to see spent on the social risks that are even mildly serious. In our society we have obviously managed to turn such risk-ranking logic on its ear, and through the crippling actions of political intervention by way of unscientific and mostly unjustified regulations, which avoid cost/benefit comparisons, can actually spend the lion's share of society's resources - its scarce wealth - (about 1 trillion dollars each year of our 10 trillion dollar economy) upon minor risks which harm few, if any individuals, one of which risks, is high level nuclear wastes. Some others are shown in Table 2, below:

    On the benefit side of the table, where certain interventions - especially preventive medicine - return immensely more benefit to society than they cost, I would very firmly place EDUCATION. As one cynic noted, if we got rid of the EPA altogether, and some other organizations too, society would be immensely safer and much more prosperous. As a result, the environment would be improved too. Social and Environmental Stupidity 101
    The raw examples above should make you wonder how society could possibly survive such an onslaught of bureaucratic ineptitude. But that is not the end of the story. Depending upon how radioactive waste is defined, many commonplace and naturally radioactive things around us could and, in some extreme cases, have become unjustifiably labeled as unsafely radioactive - usually because of political posturing; because of social mischief or willful ignorance; because of an ingrained fear of radiation; or because of the unscientific and socially destructive Precautionary Principle, and its sister insanity of zero tolerance (unless applied to violence). If the definition is too restrictive, radioactive wastes can include discarded food wastes, building materials, concrete, soil, wood, most water supplies, beer, milk, blood, meat, fish, sewage, animal manure and even human beings themselves.

    Efforts to legislate an extreme degree of public safety concerning radiation usually have the opposite effect, and make society much poorer and less safe (both tend to go together). Nonetheless, concerned and sincere individuals in some states, various municipalities, and other local governments, at one time or another have decided to attempt to legislate a 'zero tolerance' to anything radioactive. In 1979, Colorado State politicians decided to prohibit all radioactive waste disposal (zero tolerance). Such legislators appear not to have realized that everything is radioactive, or were not aware of the thousands of beneficial uses of radiation throughout society, and the difficulties that might be caused by such legislation. They soon learned, but other states and jurisdictions occasionally are tempted to tread the same path. Among the many 'difficulties' would be those with transporting and disposing of cadavers; cremation; burial; transporting fertilizer; moving meat, eggs or milk from farms or to stores; collecting blood donations; letting some patients out of hospital; disposing of hospital wastes and even of using medical supplies and some drugs; disposing of sewage; disposing of ash from fireplaces as well as from coal-burning power plants; garbage disposal; supplying drinking water from municipal wells; providing medical diagnostic procedures, as well as creating difficulties for most food transportation and use. Clearly, this would not have been the intent of the legislators, though this could have been the outcome. Fortunately, most such proposed legislative changes are caught early enough before they become politically embarrassing. But sometimes they are not.

    What are Radioactive Wastes?
    Radioactive wastes - simply defined - are any byproduct material which contains radioactivity above that level typically found in naturally occurring materials, and for which no use is presently evident.

    Many such wastes are byproducts of processes that have been going on for hundreds of years (e.g., many base-metal mining operations, phosphate mining, gold mining). The wastes are generally ignored, as to address them would be to overload society with needless expense and concern, and too many restrictions on industrial development and many social activities.

    Following the EPA radon efforts, such restrictions could have excluded building and development upon certain geological formations; control or extreme remediation of many natural water supplies to millions of households; and even ventilation of buildings. Many of the homes in large swathes of New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut (on the Reading Prong formation), as well as other locations across the U.S. and in many other countries are built on geological formations that are notably radioactive and could become candidates for draconian controls if society is not careful to limit the powers of bureaucrats. Most of this came to light in 1984 after one contractor at a nuclear plant tried to enter the facility after being in his house basement before going to work. He tripped the alarms on his way IN (common with discharged medical patients too) and thus began an investigation. The natural radon levels in his home basement were said (by the EPA) to be equivalent to him receiving 80,000 chest X-rays in a year and were said to be about 675 times the maximum levels permitted in a uranium mine. They concurred that he should evacuate his house, and despite most homes in the area exceeding guideline standards, probably did not recommend evacuation of the entire area as it would have involved evacuating thousands of homes from large chunks of at least four states, and the resulting flack would have put them out of business along with their bosses once the epidemiology showed that there were no observed health effects from this, no matter how many thousands of lung cancer deaths the EPA might have been able to calculate.

    The EPA's ongoing efforts to spook the public about radon in the U.S. have generally been unsuccessful. It is one example of a poorly-definable radiation risk that the public generally ignores, as it would hit each home-owner very hard in the pocket-book. It already does, if one tries to move real estate in these locations, though the hysteria may be diminishing a little by now after 20 years of a lack of obvious radiation-related deaths - just like the EMF hysteria (another risk that does not appear anywhere on even a much-expanded table of risks) that was in vogue a few years ago and now may also be subsiding, as the body count does not exist. Radioactive Wastes include wastes produced from:

    • Nuclear fuel cycle operations such as mining, refining, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication, power production, and spent fuel reprocessing. Spent fuel is not true 'waste' as it can be recycled (and will be eventually), and is recycled in some countries;
    • Operational and maintenance activities at nuclear power facilities;
    • Decontamination and decommissioning activities at nuclear facilities;
    • Uranium and thorium mining and processing activities and some base-metal mining operations;
    • Various industrial processes: coal burning solids and fly ash; oil and gas drilling scale, sludges and water; water treatment and filtration solids; geothermal deposits; phosphate fertilizer processing residues, which are also a source of commercial uranium;
    • Some low grade coals and coal ash with up to 1000 ppm uranium (the Dakotas and Montana in the U.S.) as well as some alum shales (Sweden), some gold mine wastes - all of which were, or still are used as sources of commercial uranium;
    • Accelerator wastes, following production of medical and research radionuclides;
    • Spent sealed radiation sources, including medical therapy devices and industrial radiography and irradiation sources;
    • Institutional uses (industry, hospital, university research) of radioisotopes;
    • Some hospital medical wastes and other discarded radiological materials;
    • Some hospital biological wastes, including some hospital sewage;
    • Military weapons-program wastes;
    • A few materials that are radioactive wastes but are not regarded as such. These include hardwood ash in the U.S. Northeast, which contains fallout cesium-137 and strontium-90 (the only two significant fairly-long half-life fission nuclides) from atmospheric bomb testing since 1945. As a gentle aside, Marshall Brucer noted that the 'downwind' cows that had been exposed to a high dose of ingested fallout radiation (about 1500 millisieverts) from the 1946 trinity bomb test, and which were presumably kept alive for observation of their likely imminent deaths from cancer, were quietly euthanized in 1964, because of extreme old age.

    Classification of Radioactive Wastes
    Radioactive Wastes can be subdivided into Low Level Wastes (LLW), Intermediate (ILW) and High Level Wastes (HLW). Some broad definitions, internationally accepted, are shown in Table 3, derived mostly from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but different jurisdictions apply their own interpretations and guidelines, often for political purposes, such as serving as trade barriers (for tobacco, meat, venison and other game meats, agricultural produce, chocolate, nuts, peat moss, etc).

    What 'Radioactive Waste' Quantities are produced in Society?
    In the U.S., the produced quantities of some radioactive wastes are shown in Table 4, below. 'Technologically Enhanced', means concentrated by some social or industrial process such as water filtration, ventilation filters, and oil drilling or fertilizer production.

    Lint traps on clothes dryers in homes in some radon rich locations are notably radioactive for several hours after use, as are the air cleaners on most cars after a moderate drive, and vacuum bags on vacuum cleaners after use, as well as the water softening units of some household water purifiers. The public gets more radiation dose from living close to these items than it might ever get from true nuclear wastes, which they never get near, but no-one would reasonably believe that these radiation sources in the home are a serious problem, as they aren't, even if the public knew about them, which they don't.

    Many patients, following certain treatments and discharged from many hundreds of medical facilities each day, are major sources of significant radioactivity around most hospitals. No one cares. Following thyroid diagnosis and treatment, thousands of patients, each year, eliminate iodine-131 into the air, and into the sewage systems, as well as significantly irradiating family members and others close by if they are released from hospital too soon. Iodine-131, originating in Montreal, Canada, is readily detectable in the St Lawrence River at Quebec City, about 140 miles downstream. Similar situations apply at all major hospitals across the continent and throughout advanced societies.

    An individual patient who has received iodine-131 treatment to ablate (destroy) the thyroid emits more iodine-131 into the environment in the first few hours following treatment (breathing and waste elimination), than an operating nuclear power facility typically emits to the environment in a full year of continuous operation. Public toilets in malls near major hospitals are interesting repositories of dribbled wastes, which people scuff around on their feet, to shops and back to their homes and laundry hampers. It's generally more comforting to them, that they are NOT aware of this. The nuclear waste of most public, media or political importance, and which generates a degree of political passion and misplaced fear in inverse proportion to its actual risk, is spent fuel and related radioactive wastes. Anyone who is following the YUCCA farce must recognize the hysteria value of this issue to opposing politicians and various environmental groups. It is not just an expensive hole in the ground (albeit a small one), almost like any other mine with similar concerns and safeguards - and then some - but it is a gold plated hole in the ground that will be milked for every last drop of emotion, bad science, and political 'pork' that can be wrung from it before any waste is brought near it. The 70,000 tonnes of wastes designated to be PUT INTO it over the decades of its lifetime, is actually close to the DAILY tonnage production of ore FROM many large base metal mines. One consideration that is rarely addressed, is that in creating this mine, more radioactivity (natural uranium and thorium) is likely to be brought to the surface and released into the air space from the volcanic tuffs removed, than is likely ever to escape from the completed facility.

    Underground disposal is essentially a knee jerk reaction to the fear that if civilized society were to collapse totally in the future, at least our present day nuclear wastes would be out of their way. By the time that might happen, if ever, not only will such wastes be essentially innocuous, but the new risks in that collapsed society would make even the supposed chronic risks from nuclear materials at the surface seem like a belch in a hurricane. So much for perspective, or protecting future society.

    What Radioactivity Is Typically Found In Society?
    Everything is naturally radioactive and is impacted by radiation as shown below. You should perhaps not read this list, as it might provide too much disturbing perspective.

    • From the sky there are about 100,000 cosmic ray protons and neutrons, and about 400,000 secondary cosmic rays, which pass into and sometimes through us each hour, as well as billions of neutrinos which pass through us each hour without being slowed or stopped.
    • From the air we breathe there are about 30,000 atoms of radon and radon progeny, which disintegrate (decay) in our lungs every hour (about 8 Bq each and every second) and deposit their energy in lung tissue. In some regions this number of radon atoms continuously decaying in the lungs may reach millions each hour.
    • From our diets there are about 15,000,000 potassium-40 atoms, and about 7,000 uranium atoms, which decay in each of our bodies every hour, and emit alpha and beta particles (stopped in the body) and gamma energies (which mostly escape to irradiate everything around us). Bananas are an excellent source of potassium in our diets, and therefore of radiation. Brazil nuts (as well as Brazilian beaches) are a well-known source of natural radiation. Tobacco use is a major source of radiation dose to smokers (up to about 80 mSv of chronic dose in a year to the mouth and trachea of a pack-a-day smoker) from polonium-210 (a daughter of radium-226) in the tobacco leaf. It's the other carcinogens that kill smokers.
    • From soil and building materials, there are over 200,000,000 gamma rays which pass through each of us every hour. In locations with much higher natural radiation backgrounds, this figure may be in the billions.

    Although we cannot see or sense any of these events, it is intriguing to consider that in light of the numbers of interactions happening inside us and around us all of the time, all of humanity lives immersed in a soup of natural radiation energies.

    Some of the major sources of radioactive materials and wastes throughout society are shown in Table 5. A becquerel (Bq) is one radioactive disintegration each second. A liter of cow's milk (and blood and urine), with its natural potassium-40 (half-life of 12.7 billion years), is radioactive at the level of about 50 Bq each and every second. Cheers! Human milk, blood and urine are similar. One institute estimate points out (accurately, although exaggerating a little) that any individual in North American society gets more of a radiation dose from eating one banana, than they would ever be likely to get from Yucca in a year, when completed. The comparison indicates either, how socially safe Yucca will be (true), and how fatuously expensive it is considering the risks incurred or avoided (true), or how dangerous bananas are (false).

    Perspective on Radiation Dose from Radiation Uses in Society
    The last century of increasing uses of radiation in society (since 1896), has shown that though radioactive materials and wastes in modern hospitals constitute only about 1% of the radioactive materials in society, they contribute about 99% of all non-natural radiation doses to the public while generally saving tens of thousands of lives each year and improving the quality of life for hundreds of thousands of patients.

    In contrast, less than 1% of public doses from non-natural sources of radiation come from all industry and the entire commercial nuclear power industry wastes (95%), with an even smaller fraction of this coming from commercial power nuclear wastes, no matter how radioactive they may be. However, none of these nuclear wastes are associated with significant doses to anyone, not even to the workers who manage them, as they are strongly governed by an internationally accepted radiation dose limit (100 millisieverts in 5 years), which is very rarely approached by any worker, and is most unlikely ever to be exceeded. Most workers actually receive, on average, about the same radiation dose in a year of work (about 2 millisieverts), that they and their families get - on average - from natural radiation exposures (about 3 millisieverts, or more per year). The 'or more' can extend up to a few hundred millisieverts per year (or more) from natural radiation in many parts of the world, especially if you visit a spa or lounge on the beaches of Brazil. If you are an astronaut - forget it, even if you do manage to avoid the Van Allen Belts, where the radiation dose gets up to about 15 millisieverts per hour. You are far off the top of the picture.

    What is perhaps of most interest - at least to me - is that medical patients - millions of them - are not governed by any radiation dose limits under treatment, and often are exposed to radiation doses that are tens to hundreds (sometimes thousands) of times larger than even industrial dose limits. No one gets even slightly excited or concerned over this.

    The general public needs to recognize these facts, but those who tweak their perceptions and stir up their emotions about extremely low radiation doses, such as those from nuclear wastes, are unlikely to be happy that these realities are being pointed out. Some really interesting perspective (that word again) on radiation and radiation doses throughout society is shown in Table 6, below. It is a logarithmic scale of just a few doses (to materials or people) in various processes, and medical procedures; in nature; in industry; in the home; and from nuclear facility operations and nuclear waste disposal future estimates. If the plot were linear, it would need a sheet of paper many miles long to cover the same scale range. The only item on the table that is of widely publicized concern is the single item at the very bottom - the potential impact in the long-term from nuclear waste disposal. As far as most of the public, special interest factions and politicians are concerned, the other figures on the table don't even exist, and many of these groups would rather that the public did not know anything about them.

    Ten sieverts (grays) of acute whole-body dose would be fatal for most humans, but this is one of the very successful (85% recovery) treatment options for leukemia. Most localized cancers are targeted with much higher doses to destroy them.

    A targeted dose of about 100 sieverts is used to destroy the thyroid, without the patient feeling a thing. The process is a lot less traumatic and much safer than surgery even if the patient gets a whole body radiation dose of about 3,000 millisieverts or more over the next few hours from the procedure. If a radiation worker got this dose at work (rather than in the hospital), the entire management of the facility would be heavily fined, would probably be in jail, and the facility would likely be closed by the NRC. And then, of course, watch for the legal carrion feeders to swoop in.

    Using radiation to sterilize hospital supplies ensures that surgery; receiving injections; and many other medical procedures are not the life-threatening ordeal that they used to be. When society is able to sweep aside the remaining manipulated mythology of food irradiation, then it is likely that we can notably reduce the 5,000 to 9,000 deaths from food-borne illness that the CDC estimates for the U.S. each year. Unfortunately, it takes an outbreak of hundreds of food poisoning deaths and injuries associated with undercooked and improperly prepared and stored meats, fish and poultry, at one time, to capture anyone's attention. Comparison of risk/benefits anyone?

    In comparison with the use of any other source of energy, one should be impressed by the lack of bodies from any aspect of using nuclear power including management and disposal of its radioactive wastes, but the acknowledgement of that simple fact, is deafening by its silence.

    For information on purchasing reprints of this article, contact Tim Tobeck ttobeck@energycentral.com.
    Copyright 2010 CyberTech, Inc.
     
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    Readers Comments

    Date Comment
    Brian O'Connell
    1.28.04
    Since becoming involved in the matter of safe, permanent disposal of "spent" (used) nuclear fuel from commercial nuclear power plants over the past five years, I have seen much of the public misinformation and fear that Mr. Sutherland describes so well in this article. It should be required reading for all who are tempted to dismiss the validity of the proposed geologic repository for Yucca Mountain.

    Many who oppose the repository project say that the government is "rushing" ahead with the project and not considering alternatives, even though the gamut of alternatives was examined (including rocketing the material into space) before Congress chose the underground disposal approach in 1983 and the Dept. of Energy has been studying the site at Yucca Mountain for the past 20 years at a cost of over six billion dollars. Far from 'rushing,' the government is at least 12 years behind the date set in federal law (1998) to begin waste disposal.

    Readers interested in knowing more about relative risk may wish to read the book, "Breaking the Vicious Circle: Toward Effective Risk Regulation" by (now Supreme Court Justice) Stephen Breyer.

    Brian O'Connell National Assn. of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Washington, DC

    Len Gould
    1.28.04
    Awwww, John. You blew it. Now they're going to ban bananas!

    On Yucca, isn't that a farce? Wait till US taxpayers see the invoices from current nuclear plant operators recovering their added costs due to US govt. failure to provide the repository on time. Nevada activists, congratulations, you may have wasted more (taxpayer) money in one step than has ever happened. Just that amount alone might have been enough to get a hydrogen economy going.

    There's the real nuclear waste.

    mauk mcamuk
    1.28.04
    To add to the commentary on Yucca Mountain and the nuclear waste boondoggle, the nuclear power industry has already filed 5.7 billion dollars worth of lawsuits against the US .gov for failing to provide a waste repository.

    Many folks think that huge dollar figure is only the tip of the iceberg, with some estimates of damage claims hitting 90 billion or more.

    Thanks, Anti-Nuclear folks! You've provided the nuclear power industry with a lucrative income source, MY TAX DOLLARS.

    Gavan Showers
    1.29.04
    The irony is that in 50 years time, nuclear waste will no longer be "wasted". It will be processed for applications like water sterilisation (a big need in the third world), medicine, health and industrial. Not that technology is holding us back - it will take this time for the debate and acceptability of such applications to run their course.

    G. Showers 30.1.2004

    James Hopf
    1.30.04
    I agree with everything said here (of course!). I especially like the point about the misconception that nuclear waste is the only waste stream that (theoretically) has a long lifespan. Everyone thinks that these 10,000 year (or 300,000 year!) issues are only being discussed for nuclear waste because it is unique in terms of posing long term hazards. Like hell!! It's not that other waste streams don't have these long-term risks. It's that those questions simply aren't even asked with respect to those other streams. (They never have been asked in the past, so why start now?)

    The whole situation came about simply (and solely) because for one specific waste stream, nuclear waste, we all of the sudden decided that we were going to make the unprecedented demand of absolute proof of negligible contact (or risk) to humans over all time into the future. The (unprecedented) requirements were absolutist, i.e., proof of dose rates that are under a fixed, unreasonably small value, over all time, or else you just can't bury the waste, no matter the need. These unbelievable,absolutist requirements are a quantum leap from the "just do the best you can" requirements that have been applied for all other waste streams, all other power sources, and all other industries in the history of mankind.

    For all other sources, it's just bury it and pray (simply not care, actually). No analyses of ultra long term performace are performed, and there are no associated requirements. For all other waste streams, the only policy discussions that may occur is if someone has a very specific recommendation (for design or operation of the dump, or processing of the waste stream) that would decrease the risks but would cost more. A cost-benefit discussion may then ensue. Discussions as to the best burial site will also occur (given that they're resolved in a reasonable time frame!). But the one thing that is NEVER considered (or even conceived) is the notion that waste burial will be disallowed, because "none of the burial options/approaches/technologies are "acceptable"". No, for all other streams, it is only a question of how much money will we spend to reduce risk how much. A choice is made from a finite list of the AVAILABLE options.

    It must be stressed that there was absolutely no basis for suddenly applying fundamentally different standards for nuclear waste burial, versus all other waste streams. They are NOT devoid of long-term risk. Who knows how long it takes for the risks of other streams to go away. The stuff doesn't decay like nuclear waste does (although in many cases there will be other mechanisms). Has anyone even studied the issue?

    It is clear that our garbage landfills and chemical waste dumps (collectively, at least) represent a FAR greater long-term risk to future generations than does Yucca Mtn. This, especially given the much more measly efforts (and features) to contain the waste in these other cases, along with the fact that the waste volumes are millions of times greater. We don't even know what's in our landfills!! Heck, several of the old landfills from several decades ago are now superfund sites. Why can't people recognize things that are so obvious (i.e., where the real risks are)?

    As was discussed in a recent ANS (American Nuclear Society) meeting I attended, if future generations curse us for anything, it sure as hell won't be for Yucca Mtn. It may not be for our garbage/toxic dumps either. No, they will curse us for draining virtually all of the precious hydrocarbons (methane, petrochemicals, etc...) from the earth, so we could use them for wasteful things like baseload power generation. These materials have so many important uses, now and into the far future, and yet we only have decades of (economically recoverable) supply. We shouldn't be wasting then like this for no good reason. Massively trumped up fears of (non-existent) nuclear waste risks is not a good reason!

    They may also curse us for a radically altered climate. Being so stupid as to allow thousands of needless deaths by continuing to use fossil fuels may also make them scratch their heads.

    John K. Sutherland
    2.3.04
    Gnetlemen, thank you for your positive comments. I am sure the wackos are building up a head of steam somewhere in the background.

    James, I especially agree with your comment that future generations will curse us for our continued profligate waste of gas and oil for energy use while sending a massive fraction of our economy to subsidise unstable dictatorial and extremist political regimes intent on our destruction (with a few exceptions).

    Oil and gas have immense alternative value in petrochemicals of many kinds, but are mostly wasted for energy and electricity. And this happened even as we were already sitting on a useable energy resource that was well defined for the last 50 years, and has no other use than to provide us with energy for the next few millions of years: nuclear energy. It has minimal environmental impact, a much better safety record than any other reasonable source of energy, and at an assured relatively low, and continuing low cost.

    Had we continued to develop nuclear energy at the pace we started, and adopted advanced nuclear cycles with recycling (the dream of environmentalists except when it has to do with spent fuel), we would now have almost 100% of our electricity from this clean source and might already have developed a hydrogen economy or totally electric cars as we had in 1900.

    Gene Hawkridge
    2.3.04
    The political issue relating to nuclear waste storage is not just the lay public's lack of understanding -- it is also the public's lack of TRUST. As the Three-Mile Island disaster unfolded, utility officials lied to the public about the level of danger, and a lot of people know they lied. I believe more damage was done to the nuclear industry by the lies than by the actual events at Three-Mile Island itself.

    It doesn't help that our current administration under President Bush has apparently been caught in another lie: using WMD as the pretext for invading Iraq. It also doesn't help that, for example, Enron executives lied about the financial condition of the company, hurting thousands of people just as certainly as a nuclear accident might. If the nuclear industry is ever to recover, we must restore trust in our government, and trust in our corporations; that is a far more difficult challenge than the technical aspects of storing nuclear wastes. It will require straightforward honesty from the boardrooms of our corporations to the Oval Office. I think more importantly, it will require teaching our children why ethics in life, business, and government is so important to establishing trust, and how lack of trust limits the possibilities of what we can accomplish.

    Gene Hawkridge Kenmore, WA

    Rodney Adams
    2.3.04
    Mr. Sutherland - congratulations on another well documented and factual article.

    As I often do, I will now chime in with a politically (economically) based thought for consideration.

    I believe that there is a logical explanation for why nuclear energy waste products are treated differently from those of all other energy sources.

    It is in the best interest of established fossil fuel producers and their associated suppliers (equipment, capital, transportation, etc.) and political supporters for us to continue to consume fossil fuels at a growing rate.

    Energy sources that threaten that rate of consumption threaten the profitability of the companies, countries and states involved.

    Before asking if rapid consumption is in their long term interests - consider the fact that most companies and political leaders think about quarterly or annual profits/budgets, not about what will happen in 20 or 50 years.

    I do NOT believe that there is a secret, coordinated effort - there is no need to tell a commodity supplier that he should do everything in his power to handicap a competitive supplier.

    How do the fossil fuel interests keep nuclear down - check out their contributions to anti-nuclear groups, political leaders, and their contributions of technical experts to energy regulatory agencies - begining in 1954. Check out also their extensive marketing efforts for their current fuels and for energy sources like wind and solar that do not threaten their market share.

    Rod Adams www.atomicinsights.com

    Len Gould
    2.4.04
    Mr Hawkridge: Using "lack of trust" as an argument is an error. Anyone who expects leadership to not act in their own selfinterest when penalties are low is dreaming. It's never happened historically (regardless of what you might think of pre-TMI times) so why should it start now? See "PECO caught by SEC overstating gas reserves", "Martha Stuart", "Enron" or every feudal lord from dark ages.

    That's just an excuse for failing to act in your own self-interest.

    TERRY MEYER
    2.10.04
    CLEAN BUT IMPRACTICLE?

    As far as radioactivity typically found in society – very interesting, but what were the levels BEFORE Los Alamos and how much of the increase came from which sources? Isn’t typical radiation a good reason to NOT increase it (by increasing risks of releases)?

    Even if industry assurances have more credibility than earlier lies about safety, what’s the plan for balancing generation with demand? Will the nuke pushers ever be constructive enough to actually build a nuke plant that follows load?

    I thought not. I have not seen one concrete plan or proposal for anything exept the same, old, immovable dinosaurs that just sit there at a stationary load supply level while dynamic load demand is changing all over the place. Even if the propaganda about nuclear safety were true, it’s too bad that we will never benefit from it since nuclear generation is impractical because the nuclear proponents are too arrogant to deal with the realities of interconnected AC system operations. What does France do about system dynamics?

    Why do I have to buy into the history of nuclear safety, but the nuclear proponenets don't have to buy into the (lack of) history of load following nuclear electric bulk power generators?

    Rodney Adams
    2.10.04
    Mr. Meyer: I realize that Adams Atomic Engines is not exactly a household name, but we propose a nuclear engine system that will definitely be a load follower.

    In fact, our patent covers the control system that allows this to occur.

    Rod Adams www.atomicengines.com

    James Hopf
    2.10.04
    Mr. Meyer:

    As the article states pretty clearly, commercial nuclear power operations have had no measurable effect on the overall radiation exposure of the public. The residual exposure from nuclear weapons tests is orders of magnitude higher, but even those exposures are much smaller than natural background. Thus, the answer to your question is that levels before Los Alamos were roughly the same as they are today.

    Public exposures from nuclear power are far less than 1% of natural background levels, and more pertinently, are less than 1% of the variations in background levels. These natural variations, which are hundreds to thousands of times the additional exposure levels from nuclear power, have been shown to produce no measurable effect on cancer rates. Thus, we are quite confident that nuclear power, over the last 40 years, has had no impact on public health.

    Perhaps I'm too young to remember, but I'm not sure what those industry "lies" about safety were. They said it was the safest (i.e., lowest public health risk) and cleanest of the major energy sources. And it is, then and to this day. Far from being shown to be false, the (40-year) history has completely vindicated the industry on this point. It's sad that so many people are blinded to these truths by non-events like Three Mile Island (which hurt noone).

    You seem to be really hung up on this load following issue. The fact is that it doesn't matter much.

    There is a substantial nitche for "baseload" power plants that do not need to load-follow at all. If you take the lowest power demand level that occurs all year (in kW) and multiply it by 8766 hours/year, the number of kW-hrs you get is equal to ~60-70% of total annual (kW-hr) generation. Thus, "dinosaur" baseload plants that (hypothetically) can not follow load at all could provide up to 60-70% of total generation without any problems. Once again, all you have to do is have enough dispatchable, gas-fired peaking plants in order to handle the variable loads above the minimum level. These need not be more than ~25-30% of generation.

    Utilities are the ones who would have to deal with any problems related to plants not being able to follow load. I have never heard a single utility executive (or engineer) say that inability to follow demand has played any role at all in their decision concerning what type of new baseload plant to order (or, more specifically, whether or not to build a new nuclear plant). If this were a serious problem, the utilities would not consider order new nuclear plants, period. This begs the question as to why we're wasting our breath here. No, this is never mentioned as an issue. Cost is the main issue, perhaps followed by the waste situation.

    Finally, who says that large nuclear plants can't load follow? They are perfectly able to do so, and in France, they often do. The reason we don't usually load follow with nukes has purely to do with economics, in that nuclear plants have the lowest fuel costs (and lowest variable costs in general). In fact, one utility guy I spoke to suggested that large coal plants are even less able to follow load than are nuclear plants. He said "once to get a large coal plant all trimmed up and running smoothly at full power, you really don't want to change it." He suggested that utilities that use a lot of nuclear and coal (such as Com Ed) would just as soon load follow with their nukes (vs. their large coal plants).

    Your basic point has always been (or seemed to be) that building new nuclear plants and increasing their share of generation would result in decreased reliability. Well, we are only at ~20%, and the most anyone is envisioning is anywhere from ~25-35% in the future. Thus, we have a long way to go before we are anywhere near the situation in France, where nuclear constitutes 75-80% of overall generation. I am not aware that France's power grid is substantially less reliable than ours. I have not heard one expert say (or even imply) that nuclear plants contribute at all to blackouts or to system reliability.

    Len Gould
    2.10.04
    Mr Meyer: Your (rather amazing) argument is clearly contradicted by the experiences in France, incidentally almost the only region which did not experience a serious blackout this past summer. There is absolutely no reason that a nuclear generating station could not be built to load follow, though as Mr Hopf points out, until baseload is covered why would anyone bother?

    The very obvious means to load follow, even if a plant weren't capable of turndown (which all of course presently are) is to keep the plant at full power and direct the excess into generating hydrogen fuel for vehicles as a secondary market.

    TERRY MEYER
    2.11.04
    Mr. Adams:

    Great proposal. Wasn’t Three Mile Island proposed as a generating station that would never, ever, release anything (regardless of how healthful) and never, ever, disrupt lives? That’s about how valuable good proposals are to me. Again, nuke proponents point to the (very short) HISTORY of safety but conveniently ignore the (lack of) HISTORY of North American nuclear generating stations that follow load demand.

    TERRY MEYER
    2.11.04
    Mr. Hopf & Mr. Gould:

    Thanks for finally clarifying how nuke releases compare to background levels. The “lies” about safety were that nuclear generation and its wastes were, well, safe. We were misled into believing that nuclear generating stations were completely clean and release free. Not “acceptably” clean (as defined by the industry post TMI). Not “insignificant” releases (as defined by the industry), but NO releases. NO disruptions of lives. If “clean” can turn into “acceptable”, and “none” can turn into “insignificant”, then I have no way of knowing what “lowest” or “cleanest” or “load following” will turn out to be in practice.

    Yearly average kwhs will never get you in touch with the realities of AC system dynamics. Try comparing the lowest kws of the year with the highest kw of the year, and I bet the “need” for baseloaded dinoasours is closer to 20% and I’ll further bet we already have that as a national average, and probably most control areas are close to that. Promises of base loaded nukes replacing base loaded coal units are just that – a promise, similar to promises that nukes would never disrupt lives (There WERE evacuations near TMI). I am not hung up on load following. Arrogant marketers, utility executives, engineers and nuke proponents are hung up on ignoring grid reality. We’re “wasting our breath here” because those utilities may “consider” nukes but they are NOT building them, perhaps partly because of their operational uselessness.

    Let’s not be hypocritical here. Despite utility “preferences” for regulating with nukes, no one does it. That is HISTORY. HISTORY is so important when discussing waste, why is HISTORY thrown out the window when considering nukes helping the system?

    As far as reliability goes, how many thousands died in France last year during their heat spell? And didn’t you hear about last August?

    So make your choice. Is a forty year history of nukes not regulating enough to prove their uselessness, or is forty years of “acceptable” safety not enough to prove their safety?

    John K. Sutherland
    2.11.04
    Terry, although Rod, James and Len have responded, and adequately well, though obviously to no avail, I will provide a few reinforcing points and some additional perspective for your radiation hang-up.

    Before Los Alamos, and the entire military Manhattan project, radiation levels in the environment were a little lower than at the present. However, if you go back far enough back to the time when life was evolving, they were significantly higher than they are now (natural radioactive decay of uranium-235, and to lesser extent of uranium-238 and thorium-232, make them lower now).

    They are a little higher today (compared with the 1930s and earlier) for at least several good reasons: more industrial exploitation, burning coal, coal mining, heavy metal mining, oil and gas production (far more radiation is in the North Sea from oil well drilling, than is caused by spent fuel reprocessing at Sellafield, although only the latter is pointed out - see SEPP web site for late last year); all producing a relatively chronic and sustained SMALL elevation of radiation in the Global environment. Much lower down on the scale - acute and relatively fleeting but with local small spikes - and in approximate order of decreasing significance: hospital discharged patients (ongoing and increasing), surface and atmospheric bomb tests (including Manhattan Project - mostly gone), Chernobyl (notable big local spike in the Ukraine and now mostly gone, but relatively small effect elsewhere), and reactor operations (extremely small effect global or local, and ongoing), nuclear spent fuel reprocessing (local, global and ongoing). I will quantify the data where possible by reference to UNSCEAR data below, and which were also summarized in the figures in two of my articles including the last one that you read, and which showed a log scale of radiation doses that you appear to have missed.

    The data below show: Average Radiation Doses and Collective Dose at Year 2000 from some Natural and Man-Made Sources of Radiation (Most Data are from UNSCEAR 2000) Expressed in Millisieverts (mSv) and Person Sieverts

    Radiation source; World average dose; Collective world dose; Hypothetical deaths

    Natural Background; 2.4 (mSv); 14.4E6 Sv; 720E3

    Medical; 0.4 (mSv); 2.4E6 Sv; 120E3

    Nuclear tests; 0.005 (mSv); 30E3 Sv; 1.5E3

    Chernobyl; 0.002 (mSv); 12E3 Sv; 600

    Burning Coal; 0.02 to 0.2 (mSv); 120E3 to 1.2E6; 6E3 to 60E3

    Nuclear Power; 0.0002 (mSv); 1.2E3 (Sv); 60

    The data on hypothetical calculated annual deaths for the world population is, of course, nonsense except for very large acute radiation exposures (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and many medical exposures).

    More perspective was also shown in an earlier article of mine which compared the major social risks from using all significant energy sources: Data from the Paul-Scherrer Institute in Switzerland for 1969 to 1996, showing relative human fatalities from 4290 energy-related accidents in commercial facilities. How much better of a statistical data base would you like?, The data indicate that for each terra-watt-year of energy use (the world uses about 13 TWyears of primary energy each year at this time), nuclear is the safest source of energy. Period.

    Nuclear Power 8

    Natural Gas 85

    Coal 342

    Oil 418

    Hydro 884

    LPG 3280

    If you can understand and believe what the Paul Scherrer numbers tell you, I await your screaming and kicking conversion to a nuke puke, as you so tenderly describe the rest of us.

    Comments continued below...

    John K. Sutherland
    2.11.04
    You must also recognize that there is a mini-industry in our part of the free world, that is based upon manipulating public perceptions and fear about almost everything, especially when it comes to radiation. This revolves around people who either manipulate data for their own mischievous purposes, or don't understand statistics. These people include those like Ernest Sternglass, John Goffman, Tamplin, Najarian and Colton, Nader (and his plutonium statements) etc. They make allegations about health effects in certain populations (downwinders) that are not unusual nor indicative of any local or even widespread problem that can be defined with any degree of confidence - unlike the immediate effects from a local refinery or natural gas explosion. Take another look at Cohen's table of risks for National significance. You can get some local data from various states' health departments (remember Love Canal?), but remember that as the studied populations get smaller, you will begin to see increasing statistical uncertainty, and even clumps of cancers and other health effects (Cancers are mostly a genetic and genetic-susceptibility effect, along with ageing, and with few exceptions).

    I am usually (initially) met by blank disbelief when I suggest to any audience that a high cancer death rate in our society is usually a sign of great good health and longevity. And that the cancer death rate has nothing to do with radiation, but has everything to do with living to a ripe old age where we tend to die either of Heart diseases, cancer, or strokes when our bodies begin to fall apart. Take your pick: die young in a third world type society with a very low cancer death rate (but high disease, starvation, violence, high child and maternal mortality), or stand a chance of living to a ripe old age in our society only to die of cancer, or stroke or heart disease. It is not so much HOW you die, or of WHAT, but WHEN you die.

    Load Following: already dealt with more than adequately.

    Coal burning and radiation. If you are so paranoid about the additional minuscule tad of radiation from nuclear power (much less than an additional 1 microsievert of dose in a year), you should first be clamoring to get rid of coal burning plants, coal mines, oil and gas drilling and use (all contributing more than about 20 microsieverts of dose in a year), and stay out of the sun, off planes, away from concrete structures, out of hospitals, stop eating, especially bananas, and if you cannot stay away from the mountainous areas, or live at sea level, then go and live under the sea on a nuclear sub, where the radiation doses are much lower than terrestrial natural background, even in proximity to the reactor. Their biggest doses come from each other.

    john bako
    2.12.04
    While reading these comments. I felt that Mr Meyers concerns about load following were adequately addressed only if one assumes that he is actually knowledgable with regard to power generation and distribution. That assumption must be false since all US power reactors can and do economically follow load to some extent (PWRs have a far greater economical range than BWRs). Peakers like gas turbines (or any other heat engine) also have a most economical output. The best example of reactor load following that might give Mr. Meyers pause to think was mentioned in Mr Sutherlands last post. Another example familiar to most people is their automobile engine (operates most efficiently at the speed it was designed to).

    Nuclear powered submarine (and surface ship) reactors definitely follow load. Constantly changing propulsion loads. If they didn't, every nuclear submarine would have two speeds "on and off". Would be unbelievably difficult to manuever into or out of port. Impossible to play "hide and seek" as well.

    I have very little expectation that Mr Meyers will change his beliefs. Beliefs are often based on early indoctrination not on a considered study of the subject matter. I only hope to help prevent that type of belief from spreading.

    As far as trust goes, very few people trust anybody else fully. The shame is that it is so easy to get your average person to believe that someone is out to harm them for profit and so hard to convince them that nothing significant happened.

    Mr Meyers will of course note again the use of the term "significant" instead of "safe" without recognizing the simple human fact that use of such terms shows a high level of personal integrity and a commitment to truth. It is easy to state that something is dangerous if you define danger as any risk at all. The trouble is that everything in life is "dangerous". The statistics and their meaning have been amply explained by Mr Sutherlands.

    A simpler statement is this; After almost thirty years of working in nuclear power as one of the higher exposed individuals at each site, my greatest likelyhoods of cancer are due to the fact that I've never been able to get my wife to stop smoking and since I have a very pale complexion have had chronic sunburn when I was stationed in the Pacific. Tended to overdue the sun after spending all that time in a submarine.

    Chemical hazards were also mentioned. As a child I lived in the LaSalle subdivision of Niagara Falls on E. 98th street. Look up ground zero for the "Love Canal". Some very unusual diseases aren't that unusual in my old neighborhood. That waste had been "safely" disposed of by burial. Current much safer burial sites are lambasted regularly. But the detractors never mention the fact that the waste is much worse off sitting in a drum in an industrial site.

    NOTHING IN LIFE IS SAFE. I'm not so sure about death, but am willing to wait as long as I can to find out by personal experience. By the way Mr Meyers that is what those statistics tables Mr Sutherland displayed were all about.

    Rodney Adams
    2.12.04
    Mr. Meyers: Do you think that natural gas is "safe"?

    Len Gould
    2.13.04
    Mr Bako's cogent post points out the unfortunate situation that too often anti-nuclear disadvocates treat their subject as a religion rather than science. My experience has been that no facts can be allowed to intrude on a religious belief position and often incredible contortions will be made to avoid same. At least it is refreshing to see some efforts being made (kudos Mr. Sutherland) to curb the wider spreading of the religion which has taken likely a larger toll on societies in the long term than almost any other of the "pseudo sciences" one can name. If nuclear power had been treated rationally since the sixties we might even now be no longer hostages to foreign petroleum exporters, and be wisely conserving precious petroleum resources for their proper use in the chemical industry.

    John K. Sutherland
    2.13.04
    John Bako Thank you for a very supportive and enlightening response to Mr Meyer. You are obviously a clear and independent thinker who has his eyes wide open to the realities of the world and has 'lived'.

    Len, You also hit the nail on the head. Most environmentalism today is the new religion, launched to fight the evil genie of progress, science, technology and thoughtful progress. I suspect that James (pro-nuke) Lovelock has thrown his hands up many times in despair that his ideas on Gaia have been subverted by these new hair-shirt zealots who dream of death for the rest of us while they survive in some gloriously pure environmental utopia with the likes of prince Philip and the other royal buffoon; virus free, no need of surplus energy except from the sun and wind; of great and pure longevity, and forever young. And naive to beat the band!

    Rodney Adams
    2.14.04
    John Sutherland and John Bako:

    Like many other religions, the religion of environmentalism is vulnerable to take over by people seeking goals that would shock many of the faithful.

    There are dozens, if not hundreds, of historical examples of clerics that have used the church as a power base, as a source of massive wealth, and as a way to force people to do things that are not in their own self interest.

    It is my contention that Environmentalism has been used mightily by the fossil fuel industry to allow its continued prosperity. If you take even a casual look through the donor records of high profile "green" organizations, you will be surprised by the number and generosity of established energy interests listed.

    The reason is simple - as Mr. Bako stated "If nuclear power had been treated rationally since the sixties we might even now be no longer hostages to foreign petroleum exporters. . ." In other words, if nuclear power was treated rationally, petroleum's market value would be far less and its applications would be limited to chemical production - a market that would not support anything like the existing fossil fuel energy industry.

    As Sun Tzu said "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". From the point of view of an industry that likes to have control over its customers, the worst possible enemy is a better product that can be sold for far less money.

    Rod Adams - www.atomicinsights.com

    Len Gould
    2.14.04
    It seems relevant to raise the issue of relative risks to individuals of various activities and society's tolerance and perseption of risks. My estimates, skydiving carries a risk of death on an individual jump of about 1/100,000 (I used to participate. This is my guess from following the sport) whereas a city trip in an automobile is only about ten time lower at about 1/1,000,000 and a ride on a commercial airline about 100 times lower at about 1/10,000,000 trips. Yet skydiving is percieved as next to suicide by most people, an obvious error. Similar numbers likely apply to almost all the popular adventure sports (white water, climbing, motor racing, etc.), none of which carry very significant real risk.

    In an excellent article on risk re: transportation, Austin Williams in the Archicect's journal concludes: "unfortunately, today we live in a society that sees progress as a dubious objective -- either redefined to mean a harmonious balance with natural barriers, or simply rejected out of hand as presumptuous folly.

    One hundred years on and it seems that the transport "field of endeavor" has lost its self-belief in the merits of mobility. This self-doubt reflects a shift from the social dynamics of the past that were driven by the unequivocal merits of scientific advance, exploration, economic development, and political clarity -- to a modern period of caution, restraint, risk-aversion and lack of authoritative vision. It is no wonder that people look back to the past for a sense of certainty, but situated in the prevalent climate of precaution, don't really know what to make of it."

    Society's present attitude to nuclear power confirms my intuition that "post-modern" attitudes in general reflect a disfunctional capability to evaluate real risk in any proportional sense, an attitude which would almost certainly have been weeded out by natural selection in prior epochs when many risks were real and such errors in judjement usually resulted in death.

    James Hopf
    2.17.04
    Len:

    No way!! I'm a skydiver myself, w/ ~4000 jumps. Been doing it since '87. No wonder we see eye to eye (especially on issues like risk, its perception, and reactions to it, etc...).

    Len Gould
    2.17.04
    James: What's your reaction to my website. http://www.ecologen.com. Send me a note. lengould@ecologen.com

    TERRY MEYER
    2.22.04
    James Hopf,

    My concern is not with exposures that are less than 19th Century background. My concern is with the increase in background caused by the source of those exposures. But even if an exposure is, say, 1% of background, doesn’t that make the total exposure, including background 101% of background?

    TERRY MEYER
    2.22.04
    John Sutherland,

    I didn’t miss the log scale of radiation doses in your last article. While comparing source doses to background is enlightening, it misses the cumulative effects of the sources of those doses upon the background level. It seems like if they all increase the background level then the background level will grow so as to keep releases a small percentage of this growing level, no matter how large the releases are in absolute terms.

    I still don’t think a 40-year safety record is long enough. If a 40-year safety record IS enough then the 40-year record of not supporting the system is also enough.

    I’m still not worried about fossil pollution because we’re almost out of fossil fuels. I’m not worried about natural gas because we’re almost out of natural gas. Even if I were concerned about fossil fuel pollution, it would not be a reason to favor nuclear pollution.

    TERRY MEYER
    2.22.04
    John Bako,

    Thank you, thank you, thank you for admitting that nukes are risky. If there had been honesty like this in the ‘60s instead of religious posturing by nuke advocates, the nation could have made a rational, informed decision on whether to build them and no one would have felt betrayed enough to fight them now and societal collapse could have been averted.

    My concern with lack of load following comes from the presence of experience, not lack thereof. Mentioning theories and naval applications does not mean there is “significant” [oh, yeah, I’m not a nuclear physicist so I’m not allowed to hide behind the “s” word] history of AC electric system load balancing done by nuclear generated steam turbo-generators. I’m supposed to accept a history of purely relative safety but I don’t get to use the history of (lack of) load following? I’m knowledgeable enough to know that, theoretically, such a plant could be built. I’m also knowledgeable enough to know that no such plant has been built. Heck, I’m even knowledgeable enough to know that a polluting nuke can be built. I do not care what the reason is that nukes have virtually no history of helping the system. I do not care if the only reason is economics. I don’t care if the reason is efficiency. I really don’t care if the reason is arrogance and ignorance of nuclear generated steam turbo-generator operators and proponents. I care that the system is already too inflexible to keep the lights from going out on 50 million Americans and that more inflexibility can only lead to more blackouts.

    The world is interconnected. Most women can see this. Most men cannot. Just because compartmentalized male engineers cannot see a direct correlation between nuke inflexibility and system blackouts doesn’t mean that there isn’t a systemic relationship between inflexible system components and blackouts caused by the summed inflexibilities of system components. Perhaps the lack of such proof comes from the lack of blackouts due to the few remaining flexible components saving grids despite the best efforts of inflexible components to crash the system. Making inflexible components a larger and larger part of the resource mix while displacing flexible components is not a logical way to avoid the society- and economy-threatening blackouts that nukes are purported to mitigate. After all, does it really matter if society collapses because of insufficient generating capacity, or because an adequate capacity couldn’t get transmitted across a dead grid? Espousing theories of hypothetical load-following nukes are not more convincing to me than theories of hypothetical nuclear catastrophes are to you. You want histories of “significant” pollution? I want histories of significant AC system load following. You reject pollution hypotheticals? I reject load-following hypotheticals.

    Actually it’s my knowledge (not lack thereof) of hypothetical nuclear load following that especially frustrates me. I’ve even seen it, in sort of a base load way, once. There are many services we need, but we don’t get any of the dynamic ones. Nuclear generators have such great potential but they’ve never demonstrated it and never will. They are useless.

    So, feel free to dismiss the facts that nukes do pollute and disrupt lives, don’t load follow, and their fuel cannot be insured as “beliefs”. Stopping my beliefs from spreading is about all you’ll ever be able to do. Unfortunately, our current way of life requires that these and other beliefs be reversed in the minds of a significant number of Americans in order to continue. I’m not sure that belittling worst-case scenarios will ever achieve that.

    So, continue to look down upon the common people as ignorant if it makes you feel better, but it won’t get the resources built that are needed to continue life as we know it. Acknowledging TMI and August 2003 first instead of smugly dismissing them as being as insignificant as the little people they affected might go a long way toward the beginning of reclaiming the lost credibility the entire energy industry as squandered over the decades. After the nuclear-generated steam turbo-generator proponents get over their denial, perhaps they could cut back on the time spent on propaganda and devote some time to overcoming the problems that are currently blocking progress.

    TERRY MEYER
    2.22.04
    Rodney Adams,

    I do not think natural gas is safe. Neither is tobacco, but that doesn’t make crack a viable alternative. Then again, natural gas is soon to run out and so will its dangers. Nuclear fuel will probably be around longer than humans and so will its risks.

    I continue to be unable to get concerned about fossil fuel risks and fossil fuel shortage risks simultaneously. Even if I were that hypocritical it still wouldn’t be good reason enough to favor a different risk in their place. And even if I were that hypocritical it wouldn’t mean Americans are hypocritical enough to buy another nuclear bill of goods.

    TERRY MEYER
    2.22.04
    Len Gould,

    I fully agree with your assessment of religion. Besides rejecting the religion of anti-nuclear disadvocates, I also reject the religion of nuclear-generated steam turbo-generator advocates that allow no facts to intrude on their beliefs that nukes regulate, don’t pollute, don’t disrupt peoples’ lives, and are safe enough to get their fuel insured. I strongly agree with the need for rationality ever since the ‘60s. Perhaps if we’d been told then that there’d be a few TMIs and 8/03s back then we wouldn’t have all the betrayed citizens fighting progress now. Or, perhaps, had the full truth been revealed then by the pro-nuke religious zealots, none would have been built in the first place and necessity would have born a better solution by now.

    Good assessment of risk assessment in the later comment. Bear in mind that it’s difficult to assess risk when there are insufficient facts and probabilities are unreliable. You can dismiss TMI, but there were no nuke proponents in the ‘60s clearly stating that nuclear power would cause Americans to be evacuated from their homes. Perhaps proponents were twisting facts to synch with their religion, just as they may be doing now?

    Concerning risk, I’m curious about Len Gould’s and James Hopf’s assessments of risk when it comes to “homeland” security. 3,000 dead in one attack was one thing, but now “security” has us jumping through hoops just to make safe the 260 or so occupants of an airplane. 260 are about one-millionth of USA population. Are we really prepared to spend whatever it takes to safeguard every American from every one-in-a-million risk? Will it still be America, or will the terrorists have won?

    TERRY MEYER
    2.22.04
    Rodney Adams,

    I especially like your assessment of religion and its propensity for being hijacked. I’m tempted to mention the equal propensity of the pro-nuke religion for being hijacked, but I could choke it down if we‘re really on the same side against the petroleum marketers. I AM concerned that the hypothetical of cheaper power is no less hollow than the promises made in the ‘60s.

    TERRY MEYER
    2.22.04
    Whatever Happened to the China Syndrome?

    I mean, I know it would never get to China. It would never even get to Earth’s core and that’s the problem. I forgot the new knowledge that guarantees that a melted pile cannot melt into the crust until it hits a pocket of water that heats to sufficient pressure to (steam “explosion”) blow the pile into the atmosphere. Can someone remind me of whatever used to be in this hole in my knowledge? Or do all we have is assurances from pro-nuke religious zealots that the risks of the melted pile forming in the first place are not “significant”? Could that be the disconnect between perceptions and reality? Is it the juxtaposition of almost certain but bearable fossil pollution versus extremely unlikely but catastrophic nuclear “pollution” at the heart of the resistance to nukes?

    John K. Sutherland
    2.22.04
    Terry: it might help if you were to moderate your comments to those expected in a reasonable and intelligent discussion, rather than throwing ill judged adjectives and invective around in your generally ad hominem comments. Unfortunately, in responding to you, I cannot avoid stooping to this low level too, to some degree.

    To answer your response to James Hopf: see Figure 1 in the above article. It is very much simplified, and it tells you what you need to know, but I will spell it out anyway, i.e. about 99% of an average radiation dose in a year comes from either natural radiation or from natural and medical radiation combined. Less than 1% is industrial, including from nuclear power facility operations. For personal, individual exposures you can get some information from the log scale that you say you did see.

    In your response to me: see the medical data in the same figure 1 in the article above, and then compare the pollution effects in the first table of the immediately preceding article that I wrote (Nuclear power comparisons and perspective) and that you appear to have missed. Also compare the relative energy use risk data of the Paul Scherrer Institute in the same article.

    In your response to John Bako, you invent things that no-one in this forum has said. Indeed, no source of energy is totally safe or can be made so and I doubt that anyone - other than perhaps yourself - would ever suggest so. Your comments on load following are a side-show of your own invention, that have been answered several times, yet you still get as hung up on this point as you do on other similar issues that have been well answered in this and other forums.

    In your first response to Rodney Adams: you are unable to get concerned about fossil fuel risks. Good. The bigger risk by far is not to have access to energy as you need, regardless of how much it might pollute. This is also shown by the first figure which I inserted into Cohen's table of risks and loss of life expectancy (third world - insufficient energy - risks). However, I also, once again, refer you to the relative energy risk data of the Paul Scherrer institute in Switzerland so that you can glean the perspective that you clearly do not have. I could also refer you to the WHO data, which suggest that 3 million people die prematurely each year because of fossil fuel and combustion pollution, but then I do not find the WHO to be very reliable in many things. Also, since the year 1900 there have been about 90,000 coal mining deaths in the U.S. alone (documented data with body counts). And that was just for the U.S. This should be food for thought for most concerned and intelligent observers of the social scene. I guess since you do not work in a coal mine and did not lose relatives in coal mining and related accidents, as I have, that the numbers don't mean anything.

    Your rambling response to Len Gould is confused and confusing. Are you trying to make a point, and if so, what point?

    Your second response to Rod Adams is yet more preaching, and you are rapidly losing coherence, and I, patience.

    Your knowledge of the China Syndrome reflects the Hollywood whiz bang, gee whiz, Fonda, Lemmon version and has nothing to do with science. But this seems to have been the problem all along in others of your posts. It seems obvious to most, if not all of us, that you need better sources of information and science, and more moderate, temperate language.

    TERRY MEYER
    3.7.04
    I can't use this forum as a good enough source of information? I have to use a better source? Everyone else here has superior knowledge to mine but no one can tell me what happens if a 1000 mw worth of nuclear fuel is packed together? I'm supposed to believe the assurances of an industry that doesn't even know what really happens in an uncontrolled reaction of a critical mass of fuel grade isotopes?

    My points to Len Gould were 1) nuclear advocacy can be impugned as a religion just as nuclear opposition can be, 2) pro-nuke rationality is as needed as anti-nuke rationality, 3) past lack of clear statements about risks impugn present day lack of clear statements about risks.

    No one is outright admitting that TMI can happen again, and no one is stating what corrections have been made. Heck, even this unknowledgeable dolt knows of one - alarm displays have been simplified in the entire electric industry - but all I get is belittlement of my knowledge and the disrupted lives near nukes. Wouldn't some acknowledgement of nuke shortcomings go a long way towards regaining the credibility needed to make nuke advantages believable? If I'm so stupid then shouldn't my ignorance be HURTING the anti-nukes? Bujt yet it doesn't seem to be hurting them enough to overcome the moratorium.

    I should tone it down. I'm obviously getting nowhere trying to enlighten proponents about why millions of Americans aren't rioting in the streets demanding nuclear power plants in their backyards. I admire the patience and professionalism of Mr. Sutherland. Perhaps a little such humility and compassion from the rest of the industry would get some nukes built. Looking down upon us as ignorant and belittling our lives as not "significant" is not getting any nukes built. By the same token, many of the charts and graphs here are difficult to even read, much less interpret. Even if they were sharper it wouldn't mean everyone would have Mr. Sutherland's ability to instantly correlate and internalize graphic data at a glance from various pages like a scheduling error leaps off the page at me from a sheet of numbers. For instance, were the data from the Paul-Scherrer Institute absolute values? Were those fatalities gross totals or per TW year? Does LPG really have 3280 deaths per TW year (mmbtu equivalent)? It seems that deaths per TW year (or megawatt hour in the case of LPG) is more useful than gross fatalities by industry.

    Perhaps a better approach for me would have been to just agree that nukes never pollute, never disrupt lives, nuclear pollution is good for you (even though it doesn't exist), nukes regulate, and uncontrolled reactions are physically impossible, then see what the knowledgeable people had to say besides "coal is bad" or "no one ever said that".

    No one has addressed the hypocrisy of hiding behind the limited history of nuclear safety while ignoring the limited history of nuke load following. Load following is not an issue I made up. It is an example of how the nuclear industry is out of touch with reality. It'll take 13 terra watts of nukes base loaded to show the proponents what I'm talking about. When we're all sitting in the dark you'll still have the piece of mind you get from calling it a sideshow issue of mine.

    Hey, I'm beginning to see the RELATIVE safety and cleanliness of nukes SO FAR, but I still get accused of not having a PhD in physics before I make a comment. Meanwhile the necessity of matching AC generation to AC load demand is dismissed as a sideshow because of someone's pipedream that it's theoretically possible to do it with nukes.

    John K. Sutherland
    3.8.04
    Terry it is extremely difficult to respond adequately to your post; not because I cannot, but because I do not have the space or the time.

    what I can do, is probably inadequate but it will at least point you in the right direction. I am also fairly sure that the two references I will give you are more likely to inflame, than educate you, even though they are essentially 100% correct in the science. However, if you can hold your ire in check and read them in their entirety, you will be able to grasp the major points to launch you on your way to attacking this industry much more effectively, if that is your aim. Knowledge is power. It has taken me more than 20 years of working in this industry to feel that I now have enough of a knowledge base to comfortably defend it, which I do often.

    I, like you, am as biased as hell (hence our ability to make rational or irrational choices), but I hope my bias is likely to be reasonably correct because of my knowledge of the entire energy picture (I write about ALL aspects of it) rather than because of fear or distrust. I am also open to having my mind changed by better science.

    Both books are available from Amazon.com as new or used books, or from your local library, unless like mine, it is populated with environmental activist censors who try to keep such dangerous books away from the weak minded proles. Thank god for the internet to get around such closed minds.

    1. Bernard L. Cohen. 1990. The Nuclear Energy Option. Plenum.

    2. Petr Beckmann. 1976. The Health Hazards of NOT going Nuclear. Golem press. The tenth printing of this book was 1985, so it also covered TMI, though not Chernobyl.

    Don Giegler
    4.20.04
    John,

    I've enjoyed following the discussion in the comments that follow your article. Petr Beckmann has also written a fascinating book, "A History of Pi". In the preface to the third edition in 1974 he decried some of the popular tendencies of the day, e.g., "Meanwhile, a disturbing trend away from science toward the irrational has set in. The aerospace industry has been all but dismantled. College enrollment in the hard sciences and engineering has significantly dropped. The disoriented and gullible flock in droves to the various Maharajahs of Mumbo Jumbo. Ecology, once a respected scientific discipline, has become the buzzword of frustrated housewives on messianic ego-trips. Technology has wounded affluent intellectuals with the ultimate insult: They cannot understand it anymore. Ignorance, anti-scientific and anti-technology sentiment have always provided the breeding ground for tyrannies in the past. The power of ancient emperors, the medieval Church, the Sun Kings, the State with a capital S, was always rooted in the ignorance of the oppressed. Anti-scientific and anti-technology sentiment is providing a breeding ground for encroaching on the individual's freedoms now. A new tyranny is on the horizon. It masquerades under the meaningless name of 'Society'." Perhaps a look or two at Schaum's outline, " Theory and Problems of Electric Power Systems" by Syed Nasar circa 1990, might also help some of those who have so obviously come over Beckmann's horizon.

    John K. Sutherland
    7.11.09
    For those who wish direction to my other papers on a related site, go here:

    http://www.energycentral.com/functional/reference/whitepapers.cfm

    and select the publisher filter - edutech enterprises - ie ME. There are 8 more papers there I believe.

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