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Much or most of the media attention given to Iran and its nuclear capabilities focuses the weapons proliferation theme, and soon spills over to arguments for and against "bombing Iran", within a context of geopolitical menace from Islam and the War on Terror, or countering Iranian threats to "wipe Israel off the world map". Iran's in fact very slow "race for the atom" is among other things also taken as the prime driver of the decision by the Arab petrostates, Egypt and Jordan to massively invest in nuclear power. In turn their desire to also possess the atom can be seen as a dangerous Sunnite-Chi'ite struggle for regional atomic hegemony.
The real subject is what we can call Muons not Mosques and Atoms not Ayatollahs. Iran's first move towards nuclear energy dates from more than 35 years ago. Starting in 1974 with the Shah's massive "plan" to develop dozens of nuclear reactors, his decision also included Iran's purchase of a controlling interest in the Eurodif fuel enrichment consortium. At the time, Iran's massive drive to develop nuclear energy was very warmly applauded by reactor, uranium and fuel service supplier countries, led by the USA, Germany, France, UK, Japan and others.
Only in the last few weeks, in August 2010, has Iran started fuelling-up its first large-size civil nuclear reactor at Bushehr, but the question of the "full nuclear fuel cycle" generates all the rational bases for charges and counterclaims that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, or only seeking to ensure future fuel supply for its reactors.
Not only Iran, but in fact all of the 182 NNWS or Non Nuclear Weapons States as defined by the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty -- only 5 states party to the NPT, the 5 UN Security Council countries, are declared weapon states -- are excluded from having the "full fuel cycle". This means they cannot enrich uranium, reprocess spent fuels, produce MOX-type fuels and so on without tight and constant IAEA controls.
These controls are easy to see, by the NNWS, as artificial economic barriers rather than the claimed firewalls on preventing nuclear weapons proliferation. The subject of the full fuel cycle is now probably the most critical and weakest part of the NPT: why should the 5-only "declared nuclear weapons states" of the UN Security Council have an exclusive right to the full fuel cycle, including uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing, and the energy security, economic value added and commercial spinoff that goes with them?
Iran is far from the only country with civil nuclear reactors posing this question. The question is made critical by the fragile situation regarding world uranium supplies. Uranium supply shortage is real, and "Peak Uranium" is harder to deny than "Peak Oil". This year's world uranium mine output could or might attain 55 000 tons, but demand will be about 68000 tons. It is difficult to imagine what would happen to world oil, coal or gas prices if their world supply was 20% lower than their world demand.
Stretching uranium fuel supplies needs the full fuel cycle. All of the 31 countries presently using nuclear energy, plus the 15 to 18 "new entrant" countries in the 2010-2020 decade, know this basic reality.
The only alternative is an extreme and easily predictable spike in nuclear fuel prices -- but permanent, unlike the oil price spike that would result if Israel goes ahead and commits the massive geostrategic error of bombing all of Iran's nuclear installations.
For information on purchasing reprints of this article, contact sales. Copyright 2013 CyberTech, Inc.
Among other good questions you've raised would be 1) "What's Japan's position regarding fuel processing / enrichmient? Isreal's? South Africa's?" 2) How many in the US will propose bombing all fuel processing facilities in Canada, including the medical isotope production facilities? Australia? Brazil? Argentina?
Len Gould 9.22.10
So shouldn't the wording "and who have made threating public statements against nearby nations" be added to the wording of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty? Oh, wait, that would then include the USA in the list of rogue nations wouldn't it?
Michael Keller 9.22.10
The folks at MIT have just recently issued a summary report on the future of the nuclear fuel. Key conclusion:
"A key message from our work is that we can and should preserve our options for fuel cycle choices by continuing with the open fuel cycle, implementing a system for managed LWR spent fuel storage, developing a geological repository, and researching technology alternatives appropriate to a range of nuclear energy futures."
There is no compelling economic reason to reprocess fuel at this point - it is cheaper to simply refuel with new uranium. Any country such as Iran and Korea that is reprocessing fuel is unquestionably doing so to make nuclear bombs. Such nations are indeed part of the "axis of evil" and should be treated as the pariahs that they are; they should be completely ostracized by the community of nations. Nations that insist on trading with these abominations should be afforded the same treatment.
Len Gould 9.23.10
Abomi-nations such as Russia and the US presumeably? Who was it who "developed" Iran's oil fields originally? Aren't you talking a re-start of the "cold war", that economic strategy to transfer all excess productive gain from the producers of the gain to the producers of the weapons? Wouldn't happen to be an investor in the weapons industry would you, or have you simply listened to their "PR" too much?
Michael Keller 9.23.10
The fact remains. Both Iran and N. Korea are fundamentally a clear and present danger to everyone. Appeasement of evil inevitably leads to death and destruction, as we saw with Hitler, Stalin and numerous others of the same nature.
Graham Cowan 9.23.10
Isn’t it true that the rate of discovery of uranium, expressed in thermal watts — not watts that are actually being released, but watts that would be released if there were so many more reactors in the world that they could keep up — comfortably exceeds the actual, thermal rate of petroleum burning?
What would happen to that discovery rate if the price of uranium rose to $5 per barrel-oil-equivalent, and the number of people and the amount of money employed in searching for it rose to equal those now, just as a random example, making Frisbees and other flying disk toys?
According to the Times, China's "civilian nuclear power industry" (and rest assured there's a Chinese military nuclear power industry as well) has 11 operating reactors, with as many as 10 new reactors per year planned for the next 15 years. That's 150 new reactors just in China.
So where will the world nuclear industry obtain the uranium fuel for all these new reactors? That's a darn good question. Just in the US, annual uranium use for the nuclear power industry is about 55 million pounds. The US produces less than 4 million pounds of this fuel - about 7% - and imports the rest.
?
bill payne 9.28.10
From: "Melvin Davidson" To: bpayne37@comcast.net Sent: Sunday, September 5, 2010 12:30:28 PM Subject: Re: solar water heater
Bill,
Yes, large-scale solar power, wind power, hybrid cars, fuel cells, and electric cars are all large-scale tax-payer frauds sustained for the most part by the science-challenged general population and those who would exploit them. We will turn over every rock on the planet looking for coal, oil, natural gas and uranium in our quest for an ever-improving average standard of living.
We are no different than an overpopulation of rats on an island.
I suggest that anyone interested in the supply of uranium without going to the closed fuel cycle read the publications of the World Nuclear Association. The recen one on Uranium supply, published in August 2010, can be found at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf75.html.
Ken
bill payne 11.17.10
Hello Mr Kok,
link http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf75.html
forwarded bill
From: bpayne37@comcast.net To: "Kurt Cobb" Cc: "george leopold" , rcolinjohnson@gmail.com, "junko yoshida" Sent: Wednesday, November 17, 2010 8:26:46 PM Subject: So where will the world nuclear industry obtain the uranium fuel for all these new reactors?
Hello Mr Cobb,
Wednesday November 17, 2010 20:21
So where will the world nuclear industry obtain the uranium fuel for all these new reactors? That's a darn good question. Just in the US, annual uranium use for the nuclear power industry is about 55 million pounds. The US produces less than 4 million pounds of this fuel - about 7% - and imports the rest.
But despite the large US demand for uranium imports, the world uranium mining industry lacks adequate capacity to meet demand. A large amount of the nuclear fuel imported into the US comes from decommissioned nuclear warheads from Russia. The warheads trace their origins back to the Soviet Union.
If you thought the US had a problem with imported oil, now you know that there's an issue with uranium fuel as well. Of course, I'm not the only one who knows this. It's a national security issue, and I can tell you that things are about to change in a very big way.
Nuclear Energy and the Iran Affair
----- Original Message ----- From: "Kurt Cobb" To: bpayne37@comcast.net Sent: Wednesday, November 17, 2010 7:24:55 PM Subject: Re: Prelude, A Peak Oil Novel, is Launched
Thanks, Bill. I do have an idea for a second book, but let's see how this one goes first. I'm keeping an eye on the rare earths issue as you are. Very interesting, but in some ways it's an issue that needed to be addressed 30 years ago.
Kurt Cobb Author of Prelude, A Peak Oil Novel
bill payne 11.17.10
Modern history warns of what can happen when a nation reacts to shortage of energy or other essential materials.
The American oil embargo caused a crisis in Japan. Reliant on the US for 80% of its oil, the Japanese were forced to decide between withdrawing from China, negotiating an end to the conflict, or going to war to obtain the needed resources elsewhere.
Fidel Castro appears to sense this too.
Castro's sudden re-emergence after four years in seclusion for health reasons has raised questions about his intentions, but his message has been consistent -- a devastating war is at hand if the United States, in alliance with Israel, tries to enforce international sanctions against Iran for its nuclear activities.
